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result sql = From GCM grid cell to agricultural plot: scale issues affecting modelling of climate impact.

From GCM grid cell to agricultural plot: scale issues affecting modelling of climate impact.

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char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = S;code = 83
char = A;code = 65
char = R;code = 82
char = R;code = 82
char = A;code = 65
char = -;code = 45
char = H;code = 72
char = ;code = 32
char = (;code = 40
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = i;code = 105
char = l;code = 108
char = l;code = 108
char = e;code = 101
char = t;code = 116
char = );code = 41
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = T;code = 84
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = u;code = 117
char = d;code = 100
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = x;code = 120
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = ;code = 32
char = 1;code = 49
char = 0;code = 48
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = g;code = 103
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = N;code = 78
char = -;code = 45
char = 1;code = 49
char = 7;code = 55
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = g;code = 103
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = N;code = 78
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = ;code = 32
char = 3;code = 51
char = 1;code = 49
char = ;code = 32
char = y;code = 121
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = q;code = 113
char = u;code = 117
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = c;code = 99
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = v;code = 118
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = u;code = 117
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = y;code = 121
char = i;code = 105
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = v;code = 118
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = v;code = 118
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = b;code = 98
char = i;code = 105
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = o;code = 111
char = l;code = 108
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = f;code = 102
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = l;code = 108
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = F;code = 70
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = o;code = 111
char = w;code = 119
char = n;code = 110
char = -;code = 45
char = s;code = 115
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = l;code = 108
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = L;code = 76
char = G;code = 71
char = O;code = 79
char = ;code = 32
char = (;code = 40
char = L;code = 76
char = e;code = 101
char = b;code = 98
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = -;code = 45
char = G;code = 71
char = u;code = 117
char = i;code = 105
char = l;code = 108
char = l;code = 108
char = o;code = 111
char = t;code = 116
char = -;code = 45
char = O;code = 79
char = n;code = 110
char = i;code = 105
char = b;code = 98
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = );code = 41
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = l;code = 108
char = o;code = 111
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = p;code = 112
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = u;code = 117
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = v;code = 118
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = b;code = 98
char = i;code = 105
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = l;code = 108
char = o;code = 111
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = g;code = 103
char = g;code = 103
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = g;code = 103
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = R;code = 82
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = u;code = 117
char = l;code = 108
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = c;code = 99
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = p;code = 112
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = p;code = 112
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = g;code = 103
char = g;code = 103
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = g;code = 103
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = f;code = 102
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = u;code = 117
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = y;code = 121
char = i;code = 105
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = 1;code = 49
char = 0;code = 48
char = -;code = 45
char = 5;code = 53
char = 0;code = 48
char = %;code = 37
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = r;code = 114
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = l;code = 108
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = u;code = 117
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = u;code = 117
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = n;code = 110
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = n;code = 110
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = h;code = 104
char = u;code = 117
char = m;code = 109
char = i;code = 105
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = z;code = 122
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = u;code = 117
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = f;code = 102
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = v;code = 118
char = a;code = 97
char = i;code = 105
char = l;code = 108
char = a;code = 97
char = b;code = 98
char = l;code = 108
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = p;code = 112
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = p;code = 112
char = i;code = 105
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = A;code = 65
char = g;code = 103
char = g;code = 103
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = g;code = 103
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = o;code = 111
char = l;code = 108
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = u;code = 117
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = g;code = 103
char = n;code = 110
char = i;code = 105
char = f;code = 102
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = e;code = 101
char = t;code = 116
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = ;code = 32
char = z;code = 122
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = y;code = 121
char = i;code = 105
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = d;code = 100
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = W;code = 87
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = e;code = 101
char = p;code = 112
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = w;code = 119
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = u;code = 117
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = c;code = 99
char = c;code = 99
char = u;code = 117
char = r;code = 114
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = a;code = 97
char = m;code = 109
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = G;code = 71
char = C;code = 67
char = M;code = 77
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = l;code = 108
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = D;code = 68
char = i;code = 105
char = s;code = 115
char = a;code = 97
char = g;code = 103
char = g;code = 103
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = g;code = 103
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = ;code = 32
char = p;code = 112
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = v;code = 118
char = i;code = 105
char = r;code = 114
char = t;code = 116
char = u;code = 117
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = y;code = 121
char = n;code = 110
char = o;code = 111
char = p;code = 112
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
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char = o;code = 111
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char = i;code = 105
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char = e;code = 101
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char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = u;code = 117
char = p;code = 112
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
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char = s;code = 115
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char = ;code = 32
char = l;code = 108
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
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char = e;code = 101
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char = l;code = 108
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
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char = ;code = 32
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char = m;code = 109
char = u;code = 117
char = l;code = 108
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char = e;code = 101
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char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
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char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
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char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = p;code = 112
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char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = l;code = 108
char = e;code = 101
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
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result sql = General circulation models (GCM) are increasingly capable of making relevant predictions of seasonal and long-term climate variability, thus improving prospects of predicting impact on crop yields. This is particularly important for semi-arid West Africa where climate variability and drought threaten food security. Translating GCM outputs into attainable crop yields is difficult because GCM grid boxes are of larger scale than the processes governing yield, involving partitioning of rain among runoff, evaporation, transpiration, drainage and storage at plot scale. This study analyses the bias introduced to crop simulation when climatic data is aggregated spatially or in time, resulting in loss of relevant variation. A detailed case study was conducted using historical weather data for Senegal, applied to the crop model SARRA-H (version for millet). The study was then extended to a 10 degrees N-17 degrees N climatic gradient and a 31 year climate sequence to evaluate yield sensitivity to the variability of solar radiation and rainfall. Finally, a down-scaling model called LGO (Lebel-Guillot-Onibon), generating local rain patterns from grid cell means, was used to restore the variability lost by aggregation. Results indicate that forcing the crop model with spatially aggregated rainfall causes yield overestimations of 10-50% in dry latitudes, but nearly none in humid zones, due to a biased fraction of rainfall available for crop transpiration. Aggregation of solar radiation data caused significant bias in wetter zones where radiation was limiting yield. Where climatic gradients are steep, these two situations can occur within the same GCM grid cell. Disaggregation of grid cell means into a pattern of virtual synoptic stations having high-resolution rainfall distribution removed much of the bias caused by aggregation and gave realistic simulations of yield. It is concluded that coupling of GCM outputs with plot level crop models can cause large systematic errors due to scale incompatibility. These errors can be avoided by transforming GCM outputs, especially rainfall, to simulate the variability found at plot level.

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