|
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char = W;code = 87
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char = r;code = 114
char = m;code = 109
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char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
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char = n;code = 110
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char = .;code = 46
result sql = Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne.
Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne.char = G;code = 71
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char = a;code = 97
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char = a;code = 97
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char = o;code = 111
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char = a;code = 97
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char = d;code = 100
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char = w;code = 119
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char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
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char = a;code = 97
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char = g;code = 103
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char = l;code = 108
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char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = l;code = 108
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char = .;code = 46
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char = P;code = 80
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char = Y;code = 89
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char = T;code = 84
char = O;code = 79
char = ;code = 32
char = T;code = 84
char = H;code = 72
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char = ;code = 32
char = C;code = 67
char = A;code = 65
char = R;code = 82
char = B;code = 66
char = O;code = 79
char = N;code = 78
char = ;code = 32
char = C;code = 67
char = Y;code = 89
char = C;code = 67
char = L;code = 76
char = E;code = 69
char = :;code = 58
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char = <;code = 60
char = /;code = 47
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char = o;code = 111
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char = s;code = 115
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result sql = Global efforts to mitigate climate change are guided by projections of future temperatures. But the eventual equilibrium global mean temperature associated with a given stabilization level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations remains uncertain, complicating the setting of stabilization targets to avoid potentially dangerous levels of global warming. SIMILAR PROBLEMS APPLY TO THE CARBON CYCLE: observations currently provide only a weak constraint on the response to future emissions. Here we use ensemble simulations of simple climate-carbon-cycle models constrained by observations and projections from more comprehensive models to simulate the temperature response to a broad range of carbon dioxide emission pathways. We find that the peak warming caused by a given cumulative carbon dioxide emission is better constrained than the warming response to a stabilization scenario. Furthermore, the relationship between cumulative emissions and peak warming is remarkably insensitive to the emission pathway (timing of emissions or peak emission rate). Hence policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to be more robust to scientific uncertainty than emission-rate or concentration targets. Total anthropogenic emissions of one trillion tonnes of carbon (3.67 trillion tonnes of CO(2)), about half of which has already been emitted since industrialization began, results in a most likely peak carbon-dioxide-induced warming of 2 degrees C above pre-industrial temperatures, with a 5-95% confidence interval of 1.3-3.9 degrees C.
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result sql = Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne.
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char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = u;code = 117
char = t;code = 116
char = u;code = 117
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = m;code = 109
char = p;code = 112
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = u;code = 117
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = B;code = 66
char = u;code = 117
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = u;code = 117
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = q;code = 113
char = u;code = 117
char = i;code = 105
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = b;code = 98
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = u;code = 117
char = m;code = 109
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = l;code = 108
char = o;code = 111
char = b;code = 98
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = m;code = 109
char = p;code = 112
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = u;code = 117
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = s;code = 115
char = o;code = 111
char = c;code = 99
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = i;code = 105
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = b;code = 98
char = i;code = 105
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = z;code = 122
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = l;code = 108
char = e;code = 101
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = s;code = 115
char = p;code = 112
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = h;code = 104
char = o;code = 111
char = u;code = 117
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = c;code = 99
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = u;code = 117
char = n;code = 110
char = c;code = 99
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = p;code = 112
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = t;code = 116
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = b;code = 98
char = i;code = 105
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = z;code = 122
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = g;code = 103
char = e;code = 101
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = v;code = 118
char = o;code = 111
char = i;code = 105
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = p;code = 112
char = o;code = 111
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = u;code = 117
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = l;code = 108
char = e;code = 101
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = l;code = 108
char = o;code = 111
char = b;code = 98
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = m;code = 109
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = <;code = 60
char = b;code = 98
char = >;code = 62
char = S;code = 83
char = I;code = 73
char = M;code = 77
char = I;code = 73
char = L;code = 76
char = A;code = 65
char = R;code = 82
char = ;code = 32
char = P;code = 80
char = R;code = 82
char = O;code = 79
char = B;code = 66
char = L;code = 76
char = E;code = 69
char = M;code = 77
char = S;code = 83
char = ;code = 32
char = A;code = 65
char = P;code = 80
char = P;code = 80
char = L;code = 76
char = Y;code = 89
char = ;code = 32
char = T;code = 84
char = O;code = 79
char = ;code = 32
char = T;code = 84
char = H;code = 72
char = E;code = 69
char = ;code = 32
char = C;code = 67
char = A;code = 65
char = R;code = 82
char = B;code = 66
char = O;code = 79
char = N;code = 78
char = ;code = 32
char = C;code = 67
char = Y;code = 89
char = C;code = 67
char = L;code = 76
char = E;code = 69
char = :;code = 58
char = ;code = 32
char = <;code = 60
char = /;code = 47
char = b;code = 98
char = >;code = 62
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = b;code = 98
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = v;code = 118
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = u;code = 117
char = r;code = 114
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = p;code = 112
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = v;code = 118
char = i;code = 105
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = k;code = 107
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = p;code = 112
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = u;code = 117
char = t;code = 116
char = u;code = 117
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = m;code = 109
char = i;code = 105
char = s;code = 115
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = H;code = 72
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = u;code = 117
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = m;code = 109
char = b;code = 98
char = l;code = 108
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = u;code = 117
char = l;code = 108
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = p;code = 112
char = l;code = 108
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = -;code = 45
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = b;code = 98
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = -;code = 45
char = c;code = 99
char = y;code = 121
char = c;code = 99
char = l;code = 108
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = b;code = 98
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = v;code = 118
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = p;code = 112
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = j;code = 106
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = p;code = 112
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = u;code = 117
char = l;code = 108
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = m;code = 109
char = p;code = 112
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = u;code = 117
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = p;code = 112
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = a;code = 97
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = b;code = 98
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = x;code = 120
char = i;code = 105
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = m;code = 109
char = i;code = 105
char = s;code = 115
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = p;code = 112
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = w;code = 119
char = a;code = 97
char = y;code = 121
char = s;code = 115
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = W;code = 87
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
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char = p;code = 112
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = k;code = 107
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = m;code = 109
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = u;code = 117
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = i;code = 105
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = u;code = 117
char = m;code = 109
char = u;code = 117
char = l;code = 108
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = b;code = 98
char = o;code = 111
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char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = x;code = 120
char = i;code = 105
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = m;code = 109
char = i;code = 105
char = s;code = 115
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = e;code = 101
char = t;code = 116
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = m;code = 109
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = p;code = 112
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = b;code = 98
char = i;code = 105
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = z;code = 122
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = c;code = 99
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = F;code = 70
char = u;code = 117
char = r;code = 114
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = h;code = 104
char = i;code = 105
char = p;code = 112
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = e;code = 101
char = t;code = 116
char = w;code = 119
char = e;code = 101
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = u;code = 117
char = m;code = 109
char = u;code = 117
char = l;code = 108
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = m;code = 109
char = i;code = 105
char = s;code = 115
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = p;code = 112
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = k;code = 107
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = m;code = 109
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = k;code = 107
char = a;code = 97
char = b;code = 98
char = l;code = 108
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result sql = Global efforts to mitigate climate change are guided by projections of future temperatures. But the eventual equilibrium global mean temperature associated with a given stabilization level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations remains uncertain, complicating the setting of stabilization targets to avoid potentially dangerous levels of global warming. SIMILAR PROBLEMS APPLY TO THE CARBON CYCLE: observations currently provide only a weak constraint on the response to future emissions. Here we use ensemble simulations of simple climate-carbon-cycle models constrained by observations and projections from more comprehensive models to simulate the temperature response to a broad range of carbon dioxide emission pathways. We find that the peak warming caused by a given cumulative carbon dioxide emission is better constrained than the warming response to a stabilization scenario. Furthermore, the relationship between cumulative emissions and peak warming is remarkably insensitive to the emission pathway (timing of emissions or peak emission rate). Hence policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to be more robust to scientific uncertainty than emission-rate or concentration targets. Total anthropogenic emissions of one trillion tonnes of carbon (3.67 trillion tonnes of CO(2)), about half of which has already been emitted since industrialization began, results in a most likely peak carbon-dioxide-induced warming of 2 degrees C above pre-industrial temperatures, with a 5-95% confidence interval of 1.3-3.9 degrees C.
Publication: Nature 2009 Apr 30 ;458(7242)::1163-6. :doi: 10.1038/nature08019.
Publication Date: 2009 Apr 30
Study Author(s): Allen, Myles R;Frame, David J;Huntingford, Chris;Jones, Chris D;Lowe, Jason A;Meinshausen, Malte;Meinshausen, Nicolai;
Institution: Department of Physics, University of Oxford, OX1 3PU, UK. [email protected]
Shortcut link to this study:
Publication Date: 2009 Apr 30
Study Author(s): Allen, Myles R;Frame, David J;Huntingford, Chris;Jones, Chris D;Lowe, Jason A;Meinshausen, Malte;Meinshausen, Nicolai;
Institution: Department of Physics, University of Oxford, OX1 3PU, UK. [email protected]
Shortcut link to this study:
Global efforts to mitigate climate change are guided by projections of future temperatures. But the eventual equilibrium global mean temperature associated with a given stabilization level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations remains uncertain, complicating the setting of stabilization targets to avoid potentially dangerous levels of global warming. SIMILAR PROBLEMS APPLY TO THE CARBON CYCLE: observations currently provide only a weak constraint on the response to future emissions. Here we use ensemble simulations of simple climate-carbon-cycle models constrained by observations and projections from more comprehensive models to simulate the temperature response to a broad range of carbon dioxide emission pathways. We find that the peak warming caused by a given cumulative carbon dioxide emission is better constrained than the warming response to a stabilization scenario. Furthermore, the relationship between cumulative emissions and peak warming is remarkably insensitive to the emission pathway (timing of emissions or peak emission rate). Hence policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to be more robust to scientific uncertainty than emission-rate or concentration targets. Total anthropogenic emissions of one trillion tonnes of carbon (3.67 trillion tonnes of CO(2)), about half of which has already been emitted since industrialization began, results in a most likely peak carbon-dioxide-induced warming of 2 degrees C above pre-industrial temperatures, with a 5-95% confidence interval of 1.3-3.9 degrees C.
PMID: 19407800
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