|
|
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Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia.char = M;code = 77
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char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = p;code = 112
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = v;code = 118
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = b;code = 98
char = l;code = 108
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = f;code = 102
char = l;code = 108
char = u;code = 117
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = c;code = 99
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = b;code = 98
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = ;code = 32
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = u;code = 117
char = t;code = 116
char = b;code = 98
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = k;code = 107
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = f;code = 102
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = e;code = 101
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = D;code = 68
char = i;code = 105
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = f;code = 102
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = c;code = 99
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = p;code = 112
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = u;code = 117
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = v;code = 118
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = f;code = 102
char = i;code = 105
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = p;code = 112
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = b;code = 98
char = a;code = 97
char = b;code = 98
char = i;code = 105
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = b;code = 98
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = s;code = 115
char = h;code = 104
char = m;code = 109
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = u;code = 117
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = f;code = 102
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = i;code = 105
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = g;code = 103
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = u;code = 117
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = f;code = 102
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = p;code = 112
char = o;code = 111
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = H;code = 72
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = g;code = 103
char = n;code = 110
char = i;code = 105
char = f;code = 102
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = p;code = 112
char = o;code = 111
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = u;code = 117
char = c;code = 99
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = v;code = 118
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = b;code = 98
char = o;code = 111
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = g;code = 103
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = u;code = 117
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = s;code = 115
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = c;code = 99
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = g;code = 103
char = m;code = 109
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = <;code = 60
char = b;code = 98
char = >;code = 62
char = W;code = 87
char = E;code = 69
char = ;code = 32
char = C;code = 67
char = O;code = 79
char = N;code = 78
char = C;code = 67
char = L;code = 76
char = U;code = 85
char = D;code = 68
char = E;code = 69
char = D;code = 68
char = ;code = 32
char = T;code = 84
char = H;code = 72
char = A;code = 65
char = T;code = 84
char = :;code = 58
char = ;code = 32
char = <;code = 60
char = /;code = 47
char = b;code = 98
char = >;code = 62
char = ;code = 32
char = (;code = 40
char = 1;code = 49
char = );code = 41
char = ;code = 32
char = G;code = 71
char = l;code = 108
char = o;code = 111
char = b;code = 98
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = k;code = 107
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = g;code = 103
char = n;code = 110
char = i;code = 105
char = f;code = 102
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = p;code = 112
char = o;code = 111
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = o;code = 111
char = u;code = 117
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = -;code = 45
char = c;code = 99
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = S;code = 83
char = i;code = 105
char = b;code = 98
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = l;code = 108
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = s;code = 115
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = p;code = 112
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = k;code = 107
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = s;code = 115
char = y;code = 121
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = m;code = 109
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = u;code = 117
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = h;code = 104
char = i;code = 105
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = v;code = 118
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = b;code = 98
char = i;code = 105
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = y;code = 121
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = (;code = 40
char = 2;code = 50
char = );code = 41
char = ;code = 32
char = T;code = 84
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = f;code = 102
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
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char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
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char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = u;code = 117
char = d;code = 100
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
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char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = n;code = 110
char = o;code = 111
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = g;code = 103
char = n;code = 110
char = i;code = 105
char = f;code = 102
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
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char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = x;code = 120
char = p;code = 112
char = l;code = 108
char = o;code = 111
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = v;code = 118
char = i;code = 105
char = r;code = 114
char = g;code = 103
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = b;code = 98
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = ;code = 32
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = p;code = 112
char = o;code = 111
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = c;code = 99
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = u;code = 117
char = t;code = 116
char = b;code = 98
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = k;code = 107
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = S;code = 83
char = i;code = 105
char = b;code = 98
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = l;code = 108
char = k;code = 107
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = (;code = 40
char = 3;code = 51
char = );code = 41
char = ;code = 32
char = N;code = 78
char = o;code = 111
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = u;code = 117
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char = m;code = 109
char = b;code = 98
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char = ;code = 32
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = v;code = 118
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char = t;code = 116
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char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = u;code = 117
char = t;code = 116
char = b;code = 98
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = k;code = 107
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = u;code = 117
char = c;code = 99
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = b;code = 98
char = o;code = 111
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = g;code = 103
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = u;code = 117
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = v;code = 118
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = s;code = 115
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char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = S;code = 83
char = i;code = 105
char = b;code = 98
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
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char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = g;code = 103
char = n;code = 110
char = i;code = 105
char = f;code = 102
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
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char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = s;code = 115
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char = a;code = 97
char = m;code = 109
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = i;code = 105
char = l;code = 108
char = d;code = 100
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = p;code = 112
char = o;code = 111
char = p;code = 112
char = u;code = 117
char = l;code = 108
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = c;code = 99
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = g;code = 103
char = m;code = 109
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = .;code = 46
char = <;code = 60
char = b;code = 98
char = r;code = 114
char = /;code = 47
char = >;code = 62
result sql = Multiple global changes such as timber harvesting in areas not previously disturbed by cutting and climate change will undoubtedly affect the composition and spatial distribution of boreal forests, which will, in turn, affect the ability of these forests to retain carbon and maintain biodiversity. To predict future states of the boreal forest reliably, it is necessary to understand the complex interactions among forest regenerative processes (succession), natural disturbances (e.g., fire, wind, and insects), and anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., timber harvest). We used a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to study the relative effects of climate change, timber harvesting, and insect outbreaks on forest composition, biomass (carbon), and landscape pattern in south-central Siberia. We found that most response variables were more strongly influenced by timber harvest and insect outbreaks than by the direct effects of climate change. Direct climate effects generally increased tree productivity and modified probability of establishment, but indirect effects on the fire regime generally counteracted the direct effects of climate on forest composition. Harvest and insects significantly changed forest composition, reduced living aboveground biomass, and increased forest fragmentation. WE CONCLUDED THAT: (1) Global change is likely to significantly change forest composition of south-central Siberian landscapes, with some changes taking ecosystems outside the historic range of variability. (2) The direct effects of climate change in the study area are not as significant as the exploitation of virgin forest by timber harvest and the potential increased outbreaks of the Siberian silk moth. (3) Novel disturbance by timber harvest and insect outbreaks may greatly reduce the aboveground living biomass of Siberian forests and may significantly alter ecosystem dynamics and wildlife populations by increasing forest fragmentation.
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = l;code = 108
char = o;code = 111
char = b;code = 98
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = f;code = 102
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = p;code = 112
char = o;code = 111
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = o;code = 111
char = u;code = 117
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = -;code = 45
char = c;code = 99
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char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = S;code = 83
char = i;code = 105
char = b;code = 98
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = .;code = 46
result sql = Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia.
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char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = );code = 41
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = W;code = 87
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = u;code = 117
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = ;code = 32
char = l;code = 108
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = s;code = 115
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = p;code = 112
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = u;code = 117
char = c;code = 99
char = c;code = 99
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = u;code = 117
char = r;code = 114
char = b;code = 98
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = c;code = 99
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = (;code = 40
char = L;code = 76
char = A;code = 65
char = N;code = 78
char = D;code = 68
char = I;code = 73
char = S;code = 83
char = -;code = 45
char = I;code = 73
char = I;code = 73
char = );code = 41
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = u;code = 117
char = d;code = 100
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = f;code = 102
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = e;code = 101
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = b;code = 98
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = ;code = 32
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = u;code = 117
char = t;code = 116
char = b;code = 98
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = k;code = 107
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = p;code = 112
char = o;code = 111
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = (;code = 40
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = b;code = 98
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = );code = 41
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = l;code = 108
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = s;code = 115
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = p;code = 112
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = p;code = 112
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = o;code = 111
char = u;code = 117
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = -;code = 45
char = c;code = 99
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = S;code = 83
char = i;code = 105
char = b;code = 98
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = W;code = 87
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = o;code = 111
char = u;code = 117
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = p;code = 112
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = v;code = 118
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = b;code = 98
char = l;code = 108
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = f;code = 102
char = l;code = 108
char = u;code = 117
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = c;code = 99
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = b;code = 98
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = ;code = 32
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = u;code = 117
char = t;code = 116
char = b;code = 98
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = k;code = 107
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = f;code = 102
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = e;code = 101
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = D;code = 68
char = i;code = 105
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = f;code = 102
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = c;code = 99
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = p;code = 112
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = u;code = 117
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = v;code = 118
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = f;code = 102
char = i;code = 105
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = p;code = 112
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = b;code = 98
char = a;code = 97
char = b;code = 98
char = i;code = 105
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = b;code = 98
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = s;code = 115
char = h;code = 104
char = m;code = 109
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = u;code = 117
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = f;code = 102
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = i;code = 105
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = g;code = 103
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = u;code = 117
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = f;code = 102
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = p;code = 112
char = o;code = 111
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = H;code = 72
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = g;code = 103
char = n;code = 110
char = i;code = 105
char = f;code = 102
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = p;code = 112
char = o;code = 111
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
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char = d;code = 100
char = u;code = 117
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char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = v;code = 118
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char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = b;code = 98
char = o;code = 111
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
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char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = u;code = 117
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = s;code = 115
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
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char = d;code = 100
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char = i;code = 105
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char = c;code = 99
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = g;code = 103
char = m;code = 109
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = <;code = 60
char = b;code = 98
char = >;code = 62
char = W;code = 87
char = E;code = 69
char = ;code = 32
char = C;code = 67
char = O;code = 79
char = N;code = 78
char = C;code = 67
char = L;code = 76
char = U;code = 85
char = D;code = 68
char = E;code = 69
char = D;code = 68
char = ;code = 32
char = T;code = 84
char = H;code = 72
char = A;code = 65
char = T;code = 84
char = :;code = 58
char = ;code = 32
char = <;code = 60
char = /;code = 47
char = b;code = 98
char = >;code = 62
char = ;code = 32
char = (;code = 40
char = 1;code = 49
char = );code = 41
char = ;code = 32
char = G;code = 71
char = l;code = 108
char = o;code = 111
char = b;code = 98
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = k;code = 107
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = g;code = 103
char = n;code = 110
char = i;code = 105
char = f;code = 102
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = p;code = 112
char = o;code = 111
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = o;code = 111
char = u;code = 117
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = -;code = 45
char = c;code = 99
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = S;code = 83
char = i;code = 105
char = b;code = 98
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = l;code = 108
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = s;code = 115
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = p;code = 112
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = k;code = 107
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
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char = l;code = 108
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char = l;code = 108
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result sql = Multiple global changes such as timber harvesting in areas not previously disturbed by cutting and climate change will undoubtedly affect the composition and spatial distribution of boreal forests, which will, in turn, affect the ability of these forests to retain carbon and maintain biodiversity. To predict future states of the boreal forest reliably, it is necessary to understand the complex interactions among forest regenerative processes (succession), natural disturbances (e.g., fire, wind, and insects), and anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., timber harvest). We used a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to study the relative effects of climate change, timber harvesting, and insect outbreaks on forest composition, biomass (carbon), and landscape pattern in south-central Siberia. We found that most response variables were more strongly influenced by timber harvest and insect outbreaks than by the direct effects of climate change. Direct climate effects generally increased tree productivity and modified probability of establishment, but indirect effects on the fire regime generally counteracted the direct effects of climate on forest composition. Harvest and insects significantly changed forest composition, reduced living aboveground biomass, and increased forest fragmentation. WE CONCLUDED THAT: (1) Global change is likely to significantly change forest composition of south-central Siberian landscapes, with some changes taking ecosystems outside the historic range of variability. (2) The direct effects of climate change in the study area are not as significant as the exploitation of virgin forest by timber harvest and the potential increased outbreaks of the Siberian silk moth. (3) Novel disturbance by timber harvest and insect outbreaks may greatly reduce the aboveground living biomass of Siberian forests and may significantly alter ecosystem dynamics and wildlife populations by increasing forest fragmentation.
Publication: Ecol Appl 2010 Apr ;20(3)::700-15.
Publication Date: 2010 Apr
Study Author(s): Gustafson, Eric J;Shvidenko, Anatoly Z;Sturtevant, Brian R;Scheller, Robert M;
Institution: Institute for Applied Ecosystem Studies, USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 5985 Highway K, Rhinelander, Wisconsin 54501, USA. [email protected]
Shortcut link to this study:
Publication Date: 2010 Apr
Study Author(s): Gustafson, Eric J;Shvidenko, Anatoly Z;Sturtevant, Brian R;Scheller, Robert M;
Institution: Institute for Applied Ecosystem Studies, USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 5985 Highway K, Rhinelander, Wisconsin 54501, USA. [email protected]
Shortcut link to this study:
Multiple global changes such as timber harvesting in areas not previously disturbed by cutting and climate change will undoubtedly affect the composition and spatial distribution of boreal forests, which will, in turn, affect the ability of these forests to retain carbon and maintain biodiversity. To predict future states of the boreal forest reliably, it is necessary to understand the complex interactions among forest regenerative processes (succession), natural disturbances (e.g., fire, wind, and insects), and anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., timber harvest). We used a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to study the relative effects of climate change, timber harvesting, and insect outbreaks on forest composition, biomass (carbon), and landscape pattern in south-central Siberia. We found that most response variables were more strongly influenced by timber harvest and insect outbreaks than by the direct effects of climate change. Direct climate effects generally increased tree productivity and modified probability of establishment, but indirect effects on the fire regime generally counteracted the direct effects of climate on forest composition. Harvest and insects significantly changed forest composition, reduced living aboveground biomass, and increased forest fragmentation. WE CONCLUDED THAT: (1) Global change is likely to significantly change forest composition of south-central Siberian landscapes, with some changes taking ecosystems outside the historic range of variability. (2) The direct effects of climate change in the study area are not as significant as the exploitation of virgin forest by timber harvest and the potential increased outbreaks of the Siberian silk moth. (3) Novel disturbance by timber harvest and insect outbreaks may greatly reduce the aboveground living biomass of Siberian forests and may significantly alter ecosystem dynamics and wildlife populations by increasing forest fragmentation.
PMID: 20437957
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