|
|
char = A;code = 65
char = c;code = 99
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = u;code = 117
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = u;code = 117
char = n;code = 110
char = c;code = 99
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = l;code = 108
char = o;code = 111
char = b;code = 98
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = u;code = 117
char = r;code = 114
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = .;code = 46
result sql = Accounting for model uncertainty in estimating global burden of disease.
Accounting for model uncertainty in estimating global burden of disease.char = <;code = 60
char = b;code = 98
char = >;code = 62
char = O;code = 79
char = B;code = 66
char = J;code = 74
char = E;code = 69
char = C;code = 67
char = T;code = 84
char = I;code = 73
char = V;code = 86
char = E;code = 69
char = ;code = 32
char = :;code = 58
char = ;code = 32
char = <;code = 60
char = /;code = 47
char = b;code = 98
char = >;code = 62
char = T;code = 84
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = l;code = 108
char = l;code = 108
char = u;code = 117
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = f;code = 102
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = a;code = 97
char = i;code = 105
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = c;code = 99
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = u;code = 117
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = u;code = 117
char = n;code = 110
char = c;code = 99
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = u;code = 117
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = l;code = 108
char = o;code = 111
char = b;code = 98
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = u;code = 117
char = r;code = 114
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = p;code = 112
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = i;code = 105
char = f;code = 102
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = p;code = 112
char = p;code = 112
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = h;code = 104
char = i;code = 105
char = l;code = 108
char = d;code = 100
char = h;code = 104
char = o;code = 111
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = v;code = 118
char = i;code = 105
char = r;code = 114
char = u;code = 117
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = .;code = 46
char = <;code = 60
char = b;code = 98
char = r;code = 114
char = /;code = 47
char = >;code = 62
char = <;code = 60
char = b;code = 98
char = r;code = 114
char = /;code = 47
char = >;code = 62
char = <;code = 60
char = b;code = 98
char = >;code = 62
char = M;code = 77
char = E;code = 69
char = T;code = 84
char = H;code = 72
char = O;code = 79
char = D;code = 68
char = S;code = 83
char = ;code = 32
char = :;code = 58
char = ;code = 32
char = <;code = 60
char = /;code = 47
char = b;code = 98
char = >;code = 62
char = T;code = 84
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = l;code = 108
char = o;code = 111
char = b;code = 98
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = u;code = 117
char = r;code = 114
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = v;code = 118
char = i;code = 105
char = r;code = 114
char = u;code = 117
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = f;code = 102
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = -;code = 45
char = e;code = 101
char = f;code = 102
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = e;code = 101
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = -;code = 45
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = e;code = 101
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = -;code = 45
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = g;code = 103
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = r;code = 114
char = u;code = 117
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = v;code = 118
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = y;code = 121
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = f;code = 102
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = c;code = 99
char = l;code = 108
char = u;code = 117
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = f;code = 102
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = b;code = 98
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = v;code = 118
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = B;code = 66
char = a;code = 97
char = y;code = 121
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = g;code = 103
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = u;code = 117
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = b;code = 98
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = u;code = 117
char = l;code = 108
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = c;code = 99
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = s;code = 115
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = s;code = 115
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char = a;code = 97
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char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = p;code = 112
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = v;code = 118
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char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
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char = m;code = 109
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = u;code = 117
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
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char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = u;code = 117
char = n;code = 110
char = c;code = 99
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = f;code = 102
char = l;code = 108
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
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char = s;code = 115
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char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = h;code = 104
char = o;code = 111
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = e;code = 101
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char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
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char = a;code = 97
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char = d;code = 100
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char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
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char = s;code = 115
char = a;code = 97
char = m;code = 109
char = p;code = 112
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
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char = g;code = 103
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char = v;code = 118
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = b;code = 98
char = i;code = 105
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = y;code = 121
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char = <;code = 60
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char = r;code = 114
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char = <;code = 60
char = b;code = 98
char = r;code = 114
char = /;code = 47
char = >;code = 62
char = <;code = 60
char = b;code = 98
char = >;code = 62
char = F;code = 70
char = I;code = 73
char = N;code = 78
char = D;code = 68
char = I;code = 73
char = N;code = 78
char = G;code = 71
char = S;code = 83
char = ;code = 32
char = :;code = 58
char = ;code = 32
char = <;code = 60
char = /;code = 47
char = b;code = 98
char = >;code = 62
char = I;code = 73
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
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char = e;code = 101
char = x;code = 120
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char = m;code = 109
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = n;code = 110
char = u;code = 117
char = m;code = 109
char = b;code = 98
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
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char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
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char = i;code = 105
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char = d;code = 100
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char = a;code = 97
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char = s;code = 115
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char = f;code = 102
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
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char = r;code = 114
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char = r;code = 114
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char = 4;code = 52
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char = 0;code = 48
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char = 6;code = 54
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char = ,;code = 44
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char = 0;code = 48
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char = s;code = 115
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result sql = OBJECTIVE : To illustrate the effects of failing to account for model uncertainty when modelling is used to estimate the global burden of disease, with specific application to childhood deaths from rotavirus infection.
METHODS : To estimate the global burden of rotavirus infection, different random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression models were constructed by varying the stratification criteria and including different combinations of covariates. Bayesian model averaging was used to combine the results across models and to provide a measure of uncertainty that reflects the choice of model and the sampling variability.
FINDINGS : In the models examined, the estimated number of child deaths from rotavirus infection varied between 492,000 and 664,000. While averaging over the different models' estimates resulted in a modest increase in the estimated number of deaths (541,000 as compared with the World Health Organization's estimate of 527,000), the width of the 95% confidence interval increased from 105,000 to 198,000 deaths when model uncertainty was taken into account.
CONCLUSION : Sampling variability explains only a portion of the overall uncertainty in a modelled estimate. The uncertainty owing to both the sampling variability and the choice of model(s) should be given when disease burden results are presented. Failure to properly account for uncertainty in disease burden estimates may lead to inappropriate uses of the estimates and inaccurate prioritization of global health needs.
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result sql = Accounting for model uncertainty in estimating global burden of disease.
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char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = u;code = 117
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = l;code = 108
char = o;code = 111
char = b;code = 98
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = u;code = 117
char = r;code = 114
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = p;code = 112
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = i;code = 105
char = f;code = 102
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = p;code = 112
char = p;code = 112
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = h;code = 104
char = i;code = 105
char = l;code = 108
char = d;code = 100
char = h;code = 104
char = o;code = 111
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = v;code = 118
char = i;code = 105
char = r;code = 114
char = u;code = 117
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = .;code = 46
char = <;code = 60
char = b;code = 98
char = r;code = 114
char = /;code = 47
char = >;code = 62
char = <;code = 60
char = b;code = 98
char = r;code = 114
char = /;code = 47
char = >;code = 62
char = <;code = 60
char = b;code = 98
char = >;code = 62
char = M;code = 77
char = E;code = 69
char = T;code = 84
char = H;code = 72
char = O;code = 79
char = D;code = 68
char = S;code = 83
char = ;code = 32
char = :;code = 58
char = ;code = 32
char = <;code = 60
char = /;code = 47
char = b;code = 98
char = >;code = 62
char = T;code = 84
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = g;code = 103
char = l;code = 108
char = o;code = 111
char = b;code = 98
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = u;code = 117
char = r;code = 114
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = v;code = 118
char = i;code = 105
char = r;code = 114
char = u;code = 117
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = f;code = 102
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = -;code = 45
char = e;code = 101
char = f;code = 102
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = e;code = 101
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = -;code = 45
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = y;code = 121
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = e;code = 101
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = -;code = 45
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = g;code = 103
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = r;code = 114
char = u;code = 117
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = v;code = 118
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = y;code = 121
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = f;code = 102
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = c;code = 99
char = l;code = 108
char = u;code = 117
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = f;code = 102
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = b;code = 98
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = v;code = 118
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = B;code = 66
char = a;code = 97
char = y;code = 121
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = g;code = 103
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = u;code = 117
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = b;code = 98
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = u;code = 117
char = l;code = 108
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = c;code = 99
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = s;code = 115
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = o;code = 111
char = ;code = 32
char = p;code = 112
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = v;code = 118
char = i;code = 105
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = u;code = 117
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = u;code = 117
char = n;code = 110
char = c;code = 99
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = y;code = 121
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = f;code = 102
char = l;code = 108
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = h;code = 104
char = o;code = 111
char = i;code = 105
char = c;code = 99
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = s;code = 115
char = a;code = 97
char = m;code = 109
char = p;code = 112
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = v;code = 118
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = a;code = 97
char = b;code = 98
char = i;code = 105
char = l;code = 108
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = y;code = 121
char = .;code = 46
char = <;code = 60
char = b;code = 98
char = r;code = 114
char = /;code = 47
char = >;code = 62
char = <;code = 60
char = b;code = 98
char = r;code = 114
char = /;code = 47
char = >;code = 62
char = <;code = 60
char = b;code = 98
char = >;code = 62
char = F;code = 70
char = I;code = 73
char = N;code = 78
char = D;code = 68
char = I;code = 73
char = N;code = 78
char = G;code = 71
char = S;code = 83
char = ;code = 32
char = :;code = 58
char = ;code = 32
char = <;code = 60
char = /;code = 47
char = b;code = 98
char = >;code = 62
char = I;code = 73
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = x;code = 120
char = a;code = 97
char = m;code = 109
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = n;code = 110
char = u;code = 117
char = m;code = 109
char = b;code = 98
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = h;code = 104
char = i;code = 105
char = l;code = 108
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = f;code = 102
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = o;code = 111
char = t;code = 116
char = a;code = 97
char = v;code = 118
char = i;code = 105
char = r;code = 114
char = u;code = 117
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = c;code = 99
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = v;code = 118
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = i;code = 105
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = b;code = 98
char = e;code = 101
char = t;code = 116
char = w;code = 119
char = e;code = 101
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = 4;code = 52
char = 9;code = 57
char = 2;code = 50
char = ,;code = 44
char = 0;code = 48
char = 0;code = 48
char = 0;code = 48
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = 6;code = 54
char = 6;code = 54
char = 4;code = 52
char = ,;code = 44
char = 0;code = 48
char = 0;code = 48
char = 0;code = 48
char = .;code = 46
char = ;code = 32
char = W;code = 87
char = h;code = 104
char = i;code = 105
char = l;code = 108
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = a;code = 97
char = g;code = 103
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = g;code = 103
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = v;code = 118
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = i;code = 105
char = f;code = 102
char = f;code = 102
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = n;code = 110
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = l;code = 108
char = s;code = 115
char = ';code = 39
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = u;code = 117
char = l;code = 108
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = ;code = 32
char = m;code = 109
char = o;code = 111
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = c;code = 99
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = i;code = 105
char = n;code = 110
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = n;code = 110
char = u;code = 117
char = m;code = 109
char = b;code = 98
char = e;code = 101
char = r;code = 114
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = d;code = 100
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = (;code = 40
char = 5;code = 53
char = 4;code = 52
char = 1;code = 49
char = ,;code = 44
char = 0;code = 48
char = 0;code = 48
char = 0;code = 48
char = ;code = 32
char = a;code = 97
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = c;code = 99
char = o;code = 111
char = m;code = 109
char = p;code = 112
char = a;code = 97
char = r;code = 114
char = e;code = 101
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = i;code = 105
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = W;code = 87
char = o;code = 111
char = r;code = 114
char = l;code = 108
char = d;code = 100
char = ;code = 32
char = H;code = 72
char = e;code = 101
char = a;code = 97
char = l;code = 108
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = ;code = 32
char = O;code = 79
char = r;code = 114
char = g;code = 103
char = a;code = 97
char = n;code = 110
char = i;code = 105
char = z;code = 122
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = o;code = 111
char = n;code = 110
char = ';code = 39
char = s;code = 115
char = ;code = 32
char = e;code = 101
char = s;code = 115
char = t;code = 116
char = i;code = 105
char = m;code = 109
char = a;code = 97
char = t;code = 116
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = 5;code = 53
char = 2;code = 50
char = 7;code = 55
char = ,;code = 44
char = 0;code = 48
char = 0;code = 48
char = 0;code = 48
char = );code = 41
char = ,;code = 44
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
char = ;code = 32
char = w;code = 119
char = i;code = 105
char = d;code = 100
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = ;code = 32
char = o;code = 111
char = f;code = 102
char = ;code = 32
char = t;code = 116
char = h;code = 104
char = e;code = 101
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char = i;code = 105
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char = ;code = 32
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char = o;code = 111
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result sql = OBJECTIVE : To illustrate the effects of failing to account for model uncertainty when modelling is used to estimate the global burden of disease, with specific application to childhood deaths from rotavirus infection.
METHODS : To estimate the global burden of rotavirus infection, different random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression models were constructed by varying the stratification criteria and including different combinations of covariates. Bayesian model averaging was used to combine the results across models and to provide a measure of uncertainty that reflects the choice of model and the sampling variability.
FINDINGS : In the models examined, the estimated number of child deaths from rotavirus infection varied between 492,000 and 664,000. While averaging over the different models' estimates resulted in a modest increase in the estimated number of deaths (541,000 as compared with the World Health Organization's estimate of 527,000), the width of the 95% confidence interval increased from 105,000 to 198,000 deaths when model uncertainty was taken into account.
CONCLUSION : Sampling variability explains only a portion of the overall uncertainty in a modelled estimate. The uncertainty owing to both the sampling variability and the choice of model(s) should be given when disease burden results are presented. Failure to properly account for uncertainty in disease burden estimates may lead to inappropriate uses of the estimates and inaccurate prioritization of global health needs.
Publication: Bull. World Health Organ. 2011 Feb 1 ;89(2)::112-20. :doi: 10.2471/BLT.09.073577.
Publication Date: 2011 Feb 1
Study Author(s): Vock, David M;Atchison, Elizabeth A;Legler, Julie M;McClure, David Rj;Carlyle, Jamie C;Jeavons, Elysia N;Burton, Anthony H;
Institution: Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, 2311 Stinson Drive (Campus Box 8203), Raleigh, NC, 27695-8203, United States of America. [email protected]
Shortcut link to this study:
Publication Date: 2011 Feb 1
Study Author(s): Vock, David M;Atchison, Elizabeth A;Legler, Julie M;McClure, David Rj;Carlyle, Jamie C;Jeavons, Elysia N;Burton, Anthony H;
Institution: Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, 2311 Stinson Drive (Campus Box 8203), Raleigh, NC, 27695-8203, United States of America. [email protected]
Shortcut link to this study:
OBJECTIVE : To illustrate the effects of failing to account for model uncertainty when modelling is used to estimate the global burden of disease, with specific application to childhood deaths from rotavirus infection.
METHODS : To estimate the global burden of rotavirus infection, different random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression models were constructed by varying the stratification criteria and including different combinations of covariates. Bayesian model averaging was used to combine the results across models and to provide a measure of uncertainty that reflects the choice of model and the sampling variability.
FINDINGS : In the models examined, the estimated number of child deaths from rotavirus infection varied between 492,000 and 664,000. While averaging over the different models' estimates resulted in a modest increase in the estimated number of deaths (541,000 as compared with the World Health Organization's estimate of 527,000), the width of the 95% confidence interval increased from 105,000 to 198,000 deaths when model uncertainty was taken into account.
CONCLUSION : Sampling variability explains only a portion of the overall uncertainty in a modelled estimate. The uncertainty owing to both the sampling variability and the choice of model(s) should be given when disease burden results are presented. Failure to properly account for uncertainty in disease burden estimates may lead to inappropriate uses of the estimates and inaccurate prioritization of global health needs.
METHODS : To estimate the global burden of rotavirus infection, different random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression models were constructed by varying the stratification criteria and including different combinations of covariates. Bayesian model averaging was used to combine the results across models and to provide a measure of uncertainty that reflects the choice of model and the sampling variability.
FINDINGS : In the models examined, the estimated number of child deaths from rotavirus infection varied between 492,000 and 664,000. While averaging over the different models' estimates resulted in a modest increase in the estimated number of deaths (541,000 as compared with the World Health Organization's estimate of 527,000), the width of the 95% confidence interval increased from 105,000 to 198,000 deaths when model uncertainty was taken into account.
CONCLUSION : Sampling variability explains only a portion of the overall uncertainty in a modelled estimate. The uncertainty owing to both the sampling variability and the choice of model(s) should be given when disease burden results are presented. Failure to properly account for uncertainty in disease burden estimates may lead to inappropriate uses of the estimates and inaccurate prioritization of global health needs.
PMID: 21346922
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